Great Salt lake Highs and lows

2 Yr. Water Level daily averages for previous 730 days
Current Level real time measurements for previous 31 days

Updated...... August 1, 2008

LOWS HIGHS
4,191.35 historic low  1963    
    4,211.85 historic high   1986
4197.5 recent low  Oct. 11, 1994     
    4204.2 recent high   June 15, 1999
    4198.1 daily March 18 2003 
4197.5 daily passed June 8, 2003    
4195.0 daily Nov. 30, 2003              
    4196.4 daily April 4 2004
4193.9 Oct. 16 thru Oct. 20 , 2004     
    4197.4 daily May 25 through
daily June 28, 2005
4195.4   Oct. 15 thru Dec. 17, 2005    
    4198.2 May 9, 2006
4196.3 October 6, 2006    
    4197.9 April 10, 2007
 4195.0 December 5, 2007    
    4196.2 April  9, 2008
predicted
4193.9 to 4193.4 		October, 2008    

The graph below shows long term lake elevations from data taken since 1983.  Click here to view a short video of satellite views of changing lake elevations.

Long Term Lake Levels 

This graph shows lake levels from 1847 to present

Guesses from Dave

Summers from 2000 through 2003 were hot and dry.  This trend ended in the summer of 2004 which had cooler than normal temperatures with normal precipitation.  The 2005 summer was more or less similar.  2006 started wet, but became hot and drier early in the year with evaporation negating high water flow.  The lake rose 2.8 feet over the year for a cumulative gain of 0.8 feet over 2005.The lake held steady at 4196.4 feet MSL, one foot higher than the 2005 low, from September 4 through October 16, 2006.  Three consecutive days, October 4-6 recorded a drop to 4196.3 feet MSL, which was recorded on four days scattered throughout September as well.  The lake then rose during the spring, BUT....  Weather proved to be exceptionally hot and dry spring of 2007 despite original forecasts of warm and wet.  The lake stopped rising early, peaking on April 10, 2007 at 4197.9 feet MSL, slightly lower than the previous spring,  and fell to the level of 4195.0 feet MSL on December 5, 2007.
2008 has been a very confused year for the Great Salt Lake.  Run-off that we usually expect in April just has not developed.  The water just isn't reaching the Great Salt Lake.  I have been pouring over charts this week and they make little sense for a normal runoff.  I finally called Brian McInerney, NOAA's water watch expert for Utah.  He is just as confused.  We developed some conclusions based on the charts and what follows is our assessment and opinion of the water flow for the next few months.
 
In A Normal Year
In a normal year Great Salt Lake will begin to rise very slowly mid January.  By late March or Early April this rise becomes very substantial with increased runoff.  This rise can be as much as 1/10 a foot every three days.  Runoff begins to slow late April to mid May. At this point runoff slows and evaporation kicks in as the lake warms up.  Basically runoff and evaporation keep the lake level in check until the first to mid June where evaporation begins to be the dominant factor for lake level.  By late June evaporation is gaining ground and the lake begins to drop rapidly from July through August.  Then evaporation begins to slow in September and comes to a crawl in October.  The lake usually bottoms out by Thanksgiving.
 
In a normal year Great Salt Lake gets 50% of its water from direct precipitation and 50% from river flows.
 
In a normal year we will come up 2 feet and drop 2 feet.  This is not a normal year.
 
What Has Happened So Far This Year
Well, Great Salt Lake does create the Greatest Snow On Earth.  December through February produced good moisture that came from outside Utah (Pacific Storms).  But March and April were actually very dry.  Although the mountains were getting plenty of snow, this snow was from Great Salt Lake.  Dry Cold Fronts traveling from the Pacific would hit the moderately warm waters of Great Salt Lake and produce plentiful "Lake Effect" storms in the mountains.  IE, we have just been recycling GSL water back to the hills.
 
These "Lake Effect" storms have created an impressive snowpack in the Wasatch and Uintah mountains.  Today that GSL Drainage snowpack is at 125% of normal (the highest percentage for the water year).  Yet, for Great Salt Lake, this is a false snowpack since most of this came from the Great Salt Lake.
 
The Great Salt Lake begin to rise rapidly mid January.  Everything looked on track for a great runoff until mid March when everything turned cold again and these Dry Cold Fronts started crossing Great Salt Lake.  These cold temperatures shut off the rivers draining into the lake.  The Dry Cold Fronts took moisture out of the lake and deposited it back into the mountains.  This pattern, except for a short heat wave two weeks ago, has been the dominant pattern.  The lake has actually dropped 2/10ths of a foot since early March.  Right now the lake is staying quite stable at 4195.9 through March, April, and May.  This is something  that has not happened for a long time.
 
As stated earlier, Great Salt Lake gets 50% of its water from direct precipitation and 50% from river flows.  We have actually been lower than normal on direct precipitation.
 
Industries Effect on the Lake
I'm not the type that makes industry the boogeyman of the environment.  But I do want to spell out another factor having an impact on the lake right now.  Both GSL Minerals and Mag Corp (AMAX) have evaporation ponds that border the lake.  Both companies are pumping vast amounts of water from the lake and into these evaporation ponds at the current time.  So this does not help the recreation uses of the lake when the water is already low.
 
What We Are Observing
There are three currents on the Great Salt Lake.  These currents are generated by the three rivers that flow into the lake along with the Goggins Drainage. These currents are named for these rivers.  The most dominant current flowing into the lake is the Bear River current.  This current is fed from water flow out of Bear River Bay and the Weber/Ogden rivers.  This current flows west between Freemont Island and Promontory Point and then along the causeway where part of it flows into the north arm of the lake and the other part flows around Carrington Bay.
 
The other dominant current of the Great Salt Lake is the Jordan River Current.  This current flows northwest from Farmington Bay near the Antelope Island Marina.  This current then flows along the southwest shore of Freemont Island before curving down along Hat Island, Carrington Island, and down Stansbury Island before turning east and then northeast along Eardley Spit.
 
The third, less dominant current is the one that most sailors on Great Salt Lake observe.  This is the Goggins Current and it runs southwest outside the marina and on the south end of the GSLYC race course.
 
The Bear River current provides 80% of the river flow to the Great Salt Lake (60% from Bear River and 20% from Weber/Ogden) and should be very strong right now.  It is not flowing at all or is very light when present.
 
The Jordan River current provides 20% of the river flow to the Great Salt Lake and should be flowing very strong right now. It is now flowing moderately.
 
The Goggins Current provides very little water to the Great Salt Lake yet it is flowing very strong right now.
 
The Bear River Drainage
At the upper river gauges the river is flowing at about max.  But at the gauges near the inlet to the Great Salt Lake, there is very little flow into Bear River Bay.  This means that although snowpack is great and the water is coming down rapidly, it is not reaching the lake.  It is either going into reservoirs or going into the ground.  Bear River, our most important river water source, will likely be a non-player this year.  This is very bad news.
 
The Weber/Ogden Rivers
At the upper river gauges the river is flowing at about max.  But at the guages near the inlet to Great Salt Lake, there is below normal flow.  It is flowing at a better rate than the Bear but only contributes 20% of our river water.  The fact that this source is also part of the Bear River Current and the Bear River Current is not running or running weak means that this river water source will be a very weak player this year.  Not good news.  The good news though is that Pineview is full and Willard will not be filled this year.  We could see an increase in the water from this source for the next few months.
 
The Jordan River Drainage
This water is actually making it to the lake yet at below normal rates.  The Provo River drainage snowpack is very high.  We may yet see some significant water come from this river source. Yet, only 20% of our river water comes from this source.
 
The Prediction and Outlook (don't hold us to this.  We're just idiots making foolish guesses)
The Great Salt Lake has likely hit its peak level for the year.  We may see another small bump in the lake level but it probably will not be significant.  Weather and River charts suggest that we will see warmer temperatures causing the snowpack to begin coming down again.  This happened a few weeks ago.  We lost a great deal of snowpack during that short spell, yet the water level did not come up.  This next round of runoff may have more of an impact on the lake causing this small bump.  but it will not be significant.  This prediction is based on the next three weeks of charts.
 
A hindering factor at this point is that the lake has warmed up.  It will likely exceed 70 degrees this weekend.  Evaporation will accelerate.  Runoff should keep this in check for awhile.
 
So, if the temperatures do not soar above normal, we are likely going to see our continuing trend of around 4195.9 for the next three weeks.
 
Long term NOAA charts are showing above average temperatures for June through August along with below normal precipitation for the sample period.  They show no drought conditions except for the Bear River area where they show a persistent or worsening drought. 
 
Long Term Scenarios
I have basically worked out two scenarios.  Neither one is good.  One is devastating.
 
Scenario Number One
We have a moderate summer with no long stretches of above normal temperatures (we don't park in the mid 90's or have a stretch above 100 degree temperatures.  We have average normal temperatures).
 
The lake should remain relatively steady through most of June and then decrease late June through October.  We would loose about 1.6 feet from where we are now ending up with a lake level of 4194.3 (about where we were in 2004 for a low)  This will match the worst lake level we have had since the drought developed.
 
This scenario is not likely based on the long Term NOAA Charts.
 
Scenario Number Two
We have a summer similar to last year where it was very hot and very dry.  Sailing will be excellent on the GSL until late July or mid August where some of the boats will no longer be able to access the lake.
 
The lake should remain relatively steady through most of June and then rapidly decrease late June through October.  We would loose about 2 to 2.5 feet from where we are now ending with a lake level of 4193.9 to 4193.4 (the worst level since the 1960's).
 
Will We Loose Access To The Lake This Year?
Yes it is possible.  It is likely the deeper draft boats will be trapped by late summer to early fall.  It is possible that most of the boats could be stuck in the marina by early to mid fall.  The problem does not lie where we dredged.  The problem lies at the end of 'B' dock.  This is an area we tried to dredge but could not reach.
 
It gets worse.
 
We could loose the launch ramp to all but the shallowest draft boats.

We will likely loose the north half of 'B' dock.
 
We will likely loose the south half of 'E' dock
 
Antelope Island Marina will cease to be a viable sailing destination for all sailboats.
 
Final Thoughts
I want to thank Brian McInerny's help on this.  He and I are both confused at the lack of water that is coming from the river sources.  And here is where some hope lies.  We do not know what is going on.  We cannot account for the fact that the runoff is strong and rivers are flowing at capacity at the upper elevations yet is not making it down to the lake.  We are making assumptions that the water is being held at the upper elevations or is being absorbed into the ground (we have had reports that wells, which are usually full by now, are having water problems).  If our assumptions are incorrect, then there is still a lot of runoff that may make it down to the lake in June.  The key is to keep moderate June temperatures and to have the water reach us rather than the aquifers.

Recent Historical Levels

The Great Salt Lake reached a record high of 4211.85 feet MSL in 1986.  Since then, it had a downward trend through 1994 (reaching 4197.5 feet MSL on October 11, 1994) followed by an upward trend through 1999. The trend from 1999 through 2004 was downward, but it appears that a new upward trend began in 2005 and has carried on into 2006. Historically, trends appear to average about seven years before reversing.

The Great Salt Lake 1994 to 1999 upward trend reached 4204.2 feet MSL measured at its maximum level on June 15, 1999 (a gain of about 7 feet).  Then,  the recent drought related downward trend began.  Over the next five years the lake dropped about 10 feet.

Highs and Lows

The lowest minimum of the downward trend from 1986 to 1994 was 4197.5 feet MSL measured October 11, 1994.  That low minimum was reached again on June 8, 2003 when the surface level was measured at 4197.4 feet MSL as it dropped to its wintertime low point.  In 2004, the maximum rise was 4196.4 feet MSL recorded on April 4.  The lake returned to 4197.4 feet MSL as the high of 2005 which was first reached on  May 25, 2005 and last measured June 28, 2005.

Daily average minimum for 2004 measured 4193.9 feet MSL and was 18 feet lower than the lake's historic high, but still 3 feet above the historic low.  This appears to be the low point for the most recent downward trend from 1999 through 2004.

Analysis

The cumulative loss of minimum surface level from 2003 to 2004 was less than a foot, while the cumulative loss for the five previous years had been from 2.3 to 2.6 feet.  Additionally, the snow pack for 2004-5 was much higher than average for the first time in seven years.  The lake began to rise about a month earlier than it had in recent years, and the rise continued into May and June, instead of March or April.  This could, according to long term data, indicate that an upward trend has begun.

The total rise for 2004 was 1.4 feet from November 30, 2003 to April 4, 2004. By May 2005, the lake had risen over 2 feet since October 30, 2004.  The ongoing rise in 2005 matched the total rise for 2004 in February, nearly seven weeks before the peak of April 4, 2004.  By April 4, 2005, an entirely different set of conditions were in place compared to 2004.  The lake had already risen nearly a foot more than the previous year's total, and a cool wet spring still left the majority of the above average snow pack in the mountains to continue filling the lake for many more weeks.  The surface elevation of the lake  equaled the previous year's elevation on that date and surpassed it a few days later.

The rise for spring of 2005 was nearly equal to that of 1998 (a year with similar snow pack for the dates) and the lake reached 4197.4 feet MSL at its maximum rise.  Continued cool, wet spring weather through April and May contributed to the lake's total rise for 2005 of 3.5 feet.  This was a gain of 1.8 feet over 2004 and is the first yearly high elevation gain since 1999.

The upward trend continued for 2005 and 2006.  The lake dropped to a low of 4195.4 feet MSL on October 15, fluctuated at or just above this level until December 17, and from that date continued to rise.  On October 30, 2004, the lake was at the lowest level measured since the late 1960s 4194.1 feet MSL.  The 2005 minimum low was 1.3 feet higher higher than that at  4195.4 feet  MSL.

By April 10, 2006, the lake had matched the previous year's high of 4197.4 feet MSL.  Snow pack water equivalency percentages for the Bear River drainage were at 107% on April 10, 2005 but were at 134% for 2006 on April 10.  The other two major drainages supplying the Great Salt Lake also had larger water percentages for 2006 than 2005.  The Provo - Jordan River drainages increased in 2006 to 142% from 134% in 2005 and the  Weber - Ogden River drainages increased to 138% in 2006 from 119% in 2005.  

The spring weather pattern for 2006 continued to be  wet, and some stations recorded snow pack. However, the weather turned very hot in May.  The stream flow was very high, but the temperature lead to evaporation at an equal rate.  Even with record snow packs, the lake reached its maximum high for 2006 of 4198.2 feet MSL on May 9, six weeks earlier than 2005 when cooler weather allowed for continued lake rise all through June.

The lake had a gain of 0.8 feet for 2006 over 2005 for its annual high point.  4198.2 feet MSL is the highest the lake has been since August 3, 2002.

As mentioned above, 1998 saw a rise of 3.3 feet with snow pack levels on April 10 of the Bear River drainage 111% , the  Weber - Ogden River drainages 122%, and Provo - Jordan River drainages 114%.  Only the increase in elevation of 4.75 feet during the flood year of 1984 was larger than the rises of 1998 (3.3), 1986 (3.4) and, 2005 (3.5).  

Click here to review past SNOWTEL precipitation data.

The level of the lake fluctuates, but at normal levels (4200 ft MSL) the average depth is 15 feet. The maximum depth is about 31 feet. In recent history the lake level has varied from 4191 to 4212 feet MSL. Long term fluctuations have a maximum of about 12 feet up or down before the trend is reversed, but the average trend difference is about 6 feet.  Seasonally, the lake's average fluxuation is about 2.5 feet over the course of a year.

There is a reef at the harbor mouth which extends along the shoreline toward Antelope Island. It is advisable to use the deep channel as marked to avoid running aground on the reef.  

Dredging has provided additional draft clearance the mouth of the marina.

It is advisable to get a navigation chart before venturing too far into the lake. These charts are available from the GSLYC.